Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
